United Nations
International Studies
A Brief Review of International Affairs (2000-2009)
About this study
This study has been undertaken for the purpose of providing a comprehensive look at the current geopolitical situation as of July 1, 2009. This information is considered to be unclassified and is therefore freely accessible to the public. It should be noted, however, that the UN cannot attest to the accuracy of all statements made in this report, since certain nations may have provided false data for reasons of national security. For a more accurate and up-to-the minute assessment of a particular country or political group you will need to obtain classified documents available from your country's intelligence agencies, assuming you have clearance for such documents. [GM: In other words, join the game! <g>].
NOTE: Each country has been given a rating in three areas: military power, economy, and political stability -- on a lscale of 1 to 10,* as a means of gaining a perspective on which countries are the most powerful and/or influential, and which countries have weakness that their leaders are going to be concerned about. Keep in mind that these ratings will be updated periodically as new information becomes available.
* This scale is more logarithmic than linear. For example, a country with a military rating of 10 is about 100 times as powerful as a country with a rating of 1.
Countries in this Report:
Organizations:
Angola
Military: 2
Economy: 1
Popular Support: 1
Allies: Russia, Cuba
Angola is in the throes of a long-running civil war between its harsh, militaristic government regime and a populist, libertarian movement known as UNITA. To help put down the rebellion, the government has enlisted the help of Russian and Cuban military advisors -- the former to train them on the use of their Russian-built weapons, the latter to instruct them in counterrevolutionary tactics. In spite of the government's superior weapons and hired expertise, however, UNITA's promise of democracy and human rights has spread like wildfire throughout the country. UNITA is believed to be receiving support from South Africa, who has an interest in reducing Angola's militaristic trend.
The economy of Angola has been devastated by famine and civil war in the last few years, which is the main reason why so many people are rebelling against the government. Angola's leader, General Zamala Yuhu, rules the country with iron-fist fascism and taxes its people heavily -- often at gunpoint -- which further deepens the state of poverty amongst the people. UNITA has accused Yuhu of showing favortism to the diamond mining industry, suggesting a conspiracy of a wealthy few at the expense of human rights and freedom.
The UN is highly concerned for the people of Angola and relief efforts are currently under way to send food or medical supplies as soon as possible. It is feared, however, that these supplies would never find their way to the people, but would instead be commandeered by the corrupt Yuhu regime and either consumed by the army or sold off at exhorbitant prices. A UN peacekeeping mission is now being considered to escort the supplies and supervise distribution. While Yuhu has welcomed the relief effort, he has denounced the intrusion of UN forces in Angola as "blatant meddling" and has claimed that any such force would be treated like any other hostile invader -- with force. If the UN does in fact decide to send a peacekeeping force to Angola, it appears it had better be a sizeable one in case Yuhu indeed intends to carry out his threat.
Argentina
Military: 5
Economy:4
Popular Support: 4
Allies: Cuba, Angola
No one saw it coming, but exactly one year ago this week the Argentine government was ousted in a bloodless coup and was suddenly replaced by a Communist regime, supported and guided from afar by Fidelito Castro of Cuba. Immediately, U.S. diplomats were asked to leave, US investments and assets were nationalized, and security along the Argentine border was tripled. It was clear that this new government wanted no ties at all with the US, apparently due to his fear of covert counter-revolutionary tactics by the US military or the CIA. To this day Argentina is now a "closed" nation to the US and most of its allies, and a state of cold war presently exists between the US and this nation.
Under the leadership of Presidente Diablo Del Fuego, Argentina has strengthened all three branches of its military and is now more than twice as powerful as any other country in Latin America. Del Fuego, no doubt bolstered by this new military strength, has already fired warning shots across the bow of Great Britain in a recent speech in which he reaffirmed Argentina's claim to the Falkland Islands. Britain responded by sending a battalion of troops to the islands, but so far there has been no direct conflict between the two countries.
Where there is a conflict, however, is along Argentina's border with its longtime South American rival, Chile. The incident began when Argentina's border patrols opened fire on unarmed Chilean mining prospectors whom Argentina claimed were trespassing across the border. Chile has been forced to respond by sending its own troops to the region and once this happened a number of sporadic skirmishes have broken out. The buildup of troops continues on both sides, leading to what appears to be a highly volatile situation between the two countries.
Australia
Military: 3
Economy: 8
Popular support: 8
Cut off from most of the strife-ridden world, Australia is enjoying a utopian existence of peace and tranquility unlike any other country in the world. Around the turn of the millenium, realizing that any potential enemy would need an enormous number of amphibious landing craft and a great deal of time to assemble and load them -- never mind the time it would take to transit to its shores -- the Australian military was downsized to a token force of a few battalions of weekend reserves and a much-reduced navy and air force as well. During the years prior to the war in Borneo (see US-Malaysia war), this seemed like a sound strategy and a great way to save the Australian taxpayer some money. This strategy, however, (or rather, lack of one) did not account for the sudden emergence of a new military power from their ambitious, Polynesian neighbor, Indonesia.
With what is now the largest and most aggressive navy in the western Pacific less than 300 miles away, Australia is now considered to be extremely vulnerable to Indonesian leverage, which could easily be enforced by a naval blockade or even a full-scale invasion. It is believed that Indonesia, in fact, has enough amphibious ships and transport aircraft to land over 60,000 troops on Australia's shores with less than 48 hours warning. While there have been no overt threats of this nature by Indonesia, most observers cannot help but notice that Australia has been noticeably silent in its response to Indonesia's aspirations to control the seaways in the South Pacific -- perhaps because Australia doesn't have any choice.
Bulgaria
Military: 3
Economy: 4
Popular Support: 6
Allies: Russian Union, Yugoslavia
Bulgaria is the only Warsaw Pact country that continues to maintain a hardline communist posture. In fact, the tensions between this militaristic republic and the countries of NATO are worse now than they were at any time during the Cold War. These tensions are mainly due to revived Bulgarian claim to the Greek province of Macedonia. What is particularly alarming about such a claim being restated at this time is that for the last five years the Bulgarian army has been growing at unprecedented rates. The army, in fact, has nearly doubled in size in the last year alone, and next year's higher conscription quotas should be swelling its ranks even more.
Bulgaria's Dictator of the Bulgarian Proloteriat, Todor Zhezhevsky, who no doubt saw how liberal western European thinking destroyed the solidarity of the Warsaw Pact, is careful to seal off the country from any form of "decadent Western influence." Zhezhevsky further promotes the Party line in weekly broadcasts, extolling the glory of the state and mocks the arts, religion and "rights" of the individual as being self-indulgent and signs of weakness. Religion, in fact, is outlawed in Bulgaria. To enforce the views of Zhezhevsky and his authoritarian police-state government, the media and the people are watched extremely closely for any sign of dissident behavior.
Heavy trade is permitted with only two nations -- Russia and Yugoslavia, which are both crucial to Bulgaria's economy. While Bulgaria is not a wealthy country, its cheap labor costs have allowed it to form a small but thriving economic "eco-system" with the Russian Union and Yugoslavia. Bulgaria, in fact, is now the chief outsource for all weapons production for Russia (other than high-tech weapons such as jet fighters and missiles) and Yugoslavia. In return, a certain portion of Russia's orders are allowed to be kept by Bulgaria, while Yugoslavia provides Bulgaria with cheap steel. In this way, Bulgaria has been able to build an army of tremendous strength at very low cost.
Chile
Military: 4
Economy: 7
Popular Support: 8
Allies: US, UK, Japan
In just a few short years, through some bold wheeling and dealing by American entrepreneurs and Chilean bankers, Santiago joined New York, London, Tokyo and Frankfurt as one of the premiere trading centers of the world, handling nearly all of Latin America's growing business securities. Considered rock-solid politically, Chile has attracted a great many investors who have been burned by the more jittery republics in the past. Today, nearly all US, UK and Japanese investments in Latin American countries are brokered through Santiago. While trading volume in Santiago still comes nowhere near that of the the other world capitals, the prestige alone has brought a new wave of business opportunities and tourism to the previously fledgling country. Dubbed the "City of the Future" by many, Santiago, and with it, Chile, has become a role model for other developing free-market countries. The trickle-down effect has begun to take hold, as the average Chilean family now enjoys twice the income it had 10 years ago with only marginal inflation.
All of which poses a sharp contrast to its communist neighbor, Argentina, whose far more modest economy must be compensated by government propaganda and military pride. This contrast is more than ideological, unfortunately, as a full-scale media war is now raging between the two countries with both sides accusing the other of aggitating its people and stirring up unrest. The two countries are generally highly suspicious of each other, creating a kind of Cold War along their two-thousand mile border. Both countries, for example, have caught the other in the act of political and industrial espionage of various kinds. This has led to some saber-rattling and a major amount of military activity to back up the words. With only minor US military presence in this region, and virtually none from either of its other two investors, the UK and Japan, Chile has been forced to provide for its defense as best it can as it reluctantly continues to maintain an arms race with its South American rival. Fortunately for Chile, the country is relatively protected from an Argentinian invasion by the Andes Mountains, thus its army is relatively small in relation to the rest of its armed forces. Most of the military budget has therefore been allocated to the country's air force and its coastal navy
China
Military: 8
Economy: 4
Popular Support: 6
Allies: North Korea, suspect possible pact with Indonesia
Of all the countries of the world, China's ambitions remain the most mysterious. Almost all pacts and agreements between China and other countries are conducted in Beijing, behind closed doors, which suggests the possibility that China may be exploiting various opportunites by playing both ends against the middle. An example of China's brand of secrecy can be seen in the way its leaders played a very mysterious, covert role in the conflict between the US and Malaysia in 2008. (For details of that conflict, please refer to the After Action Report for the Battle of Brunei.)
Perhaps the only alliance that is a matter of public record is the one with North Korea. China, in fact, is North Korea's only military ally, and can commit huge forces in all three branches, though probably not until after hostilities have already broken out. These forces could include an army of as many as half a million men, and are equipped with newly updated (still 1970s era design) equipment following the purchase of a massive number of Russian arms in 2005. Based on history and common sense, most analysts believe that China will only join North Korea if North Korea were fighting a defensive war, not an offensive one.
China's economy has been struggling these past 10 years, due in part to problems with overpopulation and the need for a more modernized infrastructure. Food shortages have been one of the country's biggest problems as of late with its people having faced a number of famines in the past decade. It is these famines that are cause for great concern when it comes to world peace, as history teaches it is one of the strongest motivations to declaring war. China still maintains a fair amount of trade with a few Pac Rim countries, most notably North Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Relations between the US and China have been declining steadily during the last ten years, due in part to recent scandals involving political campaign contributions and incidents of Chinese espionage, and because of China's massive buildup of forces in recent years following its acquisition of much of Russia's highly controversial stockpile sale in 2005. This buildup in the Chinese military can be seen along the Taiwan Strait and in the south along its border with Vietnam.
Cuba
Military: 3
Economy: 2
Popular Support: 3
Allies: Honduras, Argentina, Angola, Somalia
With the death of Fidel Castro, most political analysts forecasted that Cuba would quickly fall in line as a favorite spot for tourism, not Communism. Wrong. Soon after his death, Castro's grandson, "Fidelito" Castro, succeeded him, and was no more tolerant or benevolent to capitalist opportunists than his grandfather was. Anti-American sentiment runs strong in this country, as Fidelito continues his rampages on nightly TV and radio derailing the US and their capitalist exploitation. While the rhetoric may be old, the leader is new and vibrant and people all over Latin America find themselves swayed by his charisma. Early in 2008, the people of Cuba took to the streets, frenzied by Castro's passionate speechmaking, threatening to burn down the US Marine base at Guantanamo Bay. While the Marines were able to fend off the riots, it was clear that the days of US presence within the Cuban border were numbered. In January of this year the US Marines closed down 'Gitmo,' marking the end of a hundred-year stay.
Castro's influence has spread far beyond the shores of Cuba, however. The most notable effect of his nightly broadcasts, in fact, is the recent uprising of a small band of revolutionaries in Honduras, which has followed Castro's advice and has called for the overthrow of the "US puppet regime" that rules their country. Meanwhile, newly emerging countries like Somalia and Angola find Castro's anti-American stance resonates with their own disdain for any kind of imperialism imposed by foreign powers.
While not a great military power in its own right (being too small in population), Cuba's expertise in guerilla warfare and revolutionary and counter-revolutioinary tactics is unsurpassed, making Cuba's officer corps among the highest-paid mercenary force in the world. In fact, the "consultant" role that Cuba is playing in Angola has been rumored to be worth billions. Apparently, many countries appear willing to pay large fortunes for Cuba's knowledge and training, enough to infuse the Cuban economy with much-needed foreign currency.
It should be noted that Cuba's economy is very feeble and could easily be on the brink of collapse if trade declines much further. While the people of Cuba remain loyal to the government, their patriotism has been gained only through intimidation by the military and by Castro's artful and often mesmerizing statesmanship. Should Cuba's economy decline any further, Fidelito will need more than silvery words to prevent riots in the streets.
Egypt
Military: 6
Economy: 6
Popular Support: 5
Allies: US-aligned
Egypt is one of the more moderate of the Middle Eastern countries, and is often seen as the mediator between the radical nations such as Iran and Libya and the West. In general, Egypt considers any threat to an Arab state -- whether it be from Israel or another Arab state -- as a threat to Egypt. Thus, Egypt is often the first country that will join a defensive coalition in times of crisis, such as the Desert Shield in 1990. The country is still being led by President Mubarek, who came out of retirement to fill a vaccuum of power no one else seemed to be able to fill. Mubarek, now mellowed with age, is unlike most other Middle Eastern leaders in that he relies far more on summit diplomacy than on threats, and has even developed relations with Israel that could almost be termed cordial. Mubarek's policies are despised by other Arab nations, particularly those of the SILI Coalition (Syria, Iran, Libya, Iraq) and is not without detractors within Egypt itself.
Economically, Egypt is not as wealthy as the other, more oil-rich nations, but its economy is supported by a number of secondary industries such as import/exports and tourism. This is perhaps the main reason Egypt does not want to see any wars in its immediate vicinity. Diplomacy will continue to be an important asset for Egypt for quite some time if it is to maintain the peace as well as its influence with the other Middle East nations. As a stabilizing factor in the Middle East, Egypt is in a sense an ally of the US and will likely contribute a base and share intelligence in time of war assuming they are fighting against a common foe.
Honduras
Military: 2 (Guerrilla contras: 1)
Economy: 2
Popular Support: 2
Allies: Cuba, Argentina
After slipping below the poverty line for several years running, a leftist guerrilla movement began to form in 2008 in an effort to bring about a popular uprising and overthrow the government. The Contras promised the people that once in power they would take control of the country's resources and distribute them to the people in a fair and equitable fashion. Questions have arisen regarding where the contras are geting their weapons and other supplies, with the most accepted theory that this support is being smuggled in with the help of Cuba, Russia or possibly Argentina. It is also possible that they are being funded by drug traffickers in South America in order to gain a stopover point for exchanging transportation, laundering money and stashing product for later drug runs. There is no verification of any of these theories at this time, however.
So far, the Honduran government is still in control and the fighting at this time has been contained to interior villages and remote beach areas. Still, the conflict has chased away tourism and business, further sending the country into an economic panic. Starvation is common, and jobs are scarce, all of which is beginning to play into the hands of the Contras.
The government troops, while well equipped and far superior in numbers, are not experienced anti-guerilla fighters and the fact that the Contras may be getting expert training in this type of warfare puts them at an even greater disadvantage. They are attempting to secure the coastline and the air strips against smuggled weapons and ammunition, but here again the government may be getting outsmarted if these weapons are being brought in by drug traffickers. In the meantime, the smartly executed ambushes and clever booby-trap bombs are beginning to take their toll on government morale. New tactics will have to be improvised if they are to gain any headway against this dissident faction.
India
Military: 7
Economy: 4
Popular Support: 6
Allies: None (Non-aligned)
India is a study in contrasts. While millions of Indians continue to be inflicted with sickness, poverty and famine year after year, its military, surprisingly, ranks as one of the top five in the world. Besides having a nuclear carrier and a modern air force, India is also stockpiling nuclear missiles in an effort to keep an edge over its rival, Pakistan. While some factions of the Indian people have derided this policy of pouring so much money into defense (in particular a fanatic religious sect known as the Tamil Tigers who are advocating a violent takeover of the Indian government through terrorism), the government enjoys fairly strong popular support from the general populace, though mostly on religious grounds.
The on-again, off-again war between Pakistan and India continues to rage throughout the region. While India is by far the more powerful of the two, Pakistan has more rugged terrain that would make any incursion from India highly costly. This would theoretically allow Pakistan to target India with ballistic missiles while defending their missile sites from offensive ground operations -- a situation which understandably causes concern in India. This has created an arms race in which India must overpower Pakistan's military by a high force ratio in order to win, possibly as much as 4 to 1 or even 5 to 1.
India is generally thought to be friendly with the US, Japan as well as with most NATO countries (especially the UK), though relations with all these countries appear to have been somewhat strained lately stemming from India's persistence in increasing its nuclear strike capability and in its rapid arms buildup. Still, India's ties with the US and NATO could come in handy should Pakistan show signs of actually launching nuclear missiles. At the same time, India also maintains good relations with the Russian Union, too, primarily because of the massive number of modern Russian weapons it bought in the last five years which requires a certain degree of hired Russian expertise to maintain them. Thus, while officially non-aligned, India could easily play the US against the Russians for its own advantage.
Indonesia
Military: 5
Economy: 3
Popular Support: 6
Allies: China, Iran
While Indonesia has kept its military aggression contained to its own islands thus far, there is ample fear in the region that they may have aspirations beyond their home waters. The still-contested Spratly oil fields in the South China Sea, and extended fishing rights could be just two valuable resources which could be ripe for the taking if China, a suspected ally of Indonesia, agreed to look the other way. Obviously, tensions between Indonesia and the other Pac Rim countries as well as the US are not going to cease anytime soon.
Iran
Military: 7
Economy: 9
Popular Support: 9
Allies: Russia, Iraq, Syria and Libya
Led by one-eyed Ayatollah Khabuki Khanolli, Iran has been enjoying almost three decades of peace and far more prosperity than its war-torn neighbors, Syria and Iraq. Khanolli, a solemn, fundamentalist Muslim, presides over the country with a deeply religious aura that has won him unswervingly loyal, almost fanatical obedience among his people. Part of his appeal is attributed to Scripture, which alludes to a one-eyed prophet who will some day "light the way." Though some scholars suggest that the Ayatollah's physical handicap is probably just a coincidence (inflicted by one of his wives in a heated argument) the people of Iran see this as a 'sign,' and follow his every word as though he is a messenger from God. This has bolstered Khanolli's image as a spokesperson for all Arab nations -- except for Libya, where the ayatollah's popularity is a thorn to his more militant and ambitious rival, Col. Khaki Khadama. While no one refers to this rivalry within the Arab world, tensions between these two leaders have been noted in more than one occasion and may be the one stumbling block keeping them from forming a powerful coalition with Syria and Iraq against Israel.
As one of the top oil producers in the world, Iran is doing quite well economically, though most of the oil revenue is never seen by the public, either in the form of jobs or in the country's infrastructure. Rather, most of Iran's funds have gone into creating two things: a larger, more well-trained military with 80's and 90's era Russian weaponry, and large, ostentatious palaces and monuments built in homage to Khanolli.
In the past, Khanolli has opted not to get involved in any costly military campaigns and instead let his Arab brethren fight it out whenever there are squabbles to be resolved. Every time this happens, Iran quietly takes another step toward becoming the most powerful nation in the Middle East. Lately, however, Khanolli and his adoring followers are for the first time threatening to join in on the side of Syria in its war on Israel, along with the other two SILI countries -- Iraq and Libya. The fact that such a reserved and renowned leader is beginning to talk of war is a grave matter indeed, one which the US and other western nations cannot afford to take lightly. Most analysts agree that Israel, while stronger and better trained than any single Arab country, could never stand up to the entire SILI Coalition without direct military intervention by the US.
Iraq
Military: 6
Economy: 8
Popular Support: 5
Allies: Russia, Iran, Syria and Libya
Saddam Hussein, who after countless assassination attempts (both real and imagined), still rules Iraq with unquestioned authority today as as much as he ever did. The only difference is that now he is reportedly leading the country from a command bunker some three miles underground, where rumor has it that he sits and stares at a war map night and day without sleep. According to these same rumors, he has not been above ground or seen natural sunlight in over three years-- owing to a deep fear of NATO air strikes and CIA assassination attempts -- and apparently still dreams of a summer palace in Kuwait City (or rather, a summer bunker).
Iraq is still considered to be among the more militant countries in the Middle East, along with Iran and Libya, and appears willing to use its military freely, without warning and at the slightest provocation. Iraq has been cited -- and punished -- on numerous occasions for starting numerous illegal weapons programs that include both biological weapons and weapons of mass destruction. Unfortunately, by the time one program is discovered and removed by UN peacekeeping forces, another has usually begun somewhere else. The last incident involved the rebuilding of the Osiraq nuclear reactor site outside of Baghdad, which was really a front to produce nuclear weapons. The site was promptly destroyed, as it was once before some decades ago by an Israeli air strike. It has been several years, however, since the US and other allies have detected this last weapons infraction. This has many countries in the region nervous, asking the same question -- what is Saddam working on now?
Iraq's brash disregard of international law no doubt stems from its close ties with Russia, who has publicly backed Iraq as its "sworn ally." Russia's meaning is clear: any significant threat to Iraq will be treated as a threat to Russia itself and will be dealt with accordingly. Russia's support for Iraq does not come from any sharing of ideological or even political views with Iraq (other than generally being anti-American), but rather a strong client-customer relationship. Huge portions of Iraq's immense oil revenues continue to be spent on Russian arms, far overstepping the treaty requirements set forth by the Allied coalition after the Gulf War. This of course requires high-priced Russian servicing, support and training, which continue to be important sources of revenue for Russia.
While Iraq continues to buy the most top-grade Russian equipment for all of its military branches, most of its forces are probably no better in terms of training or materiel than those deployed in 1990. Still, there are many who think that if Hussein were to strike Kuwait a second time, the U.S. would not be able to pull off a unified coalition against Iraq again -- particularly if Russia were to intercede in Iraq's behalf. Once this happened, Iran, Syria and Libya -- three other top Russian customers who share a common hatred of the US and Israel, would come to Iraq's aid as well. Thus, the only attack that can be made on Iraq that will not start a world war appear to be tactical ones aimed at removing dangerous weapons sites -- something that no one, including Russia, wants to see developed. This still brings up the issue of how best to strike such a target, since Iraq's military is much stronger now than a few years ago when Israel was able to take care of the problem by itself. Obviously, heavy US intervention is expected and needed in such circumstances.
Israel
Military: 5
Economy: 6
Popular Support: 8
Allies: US
Israel is currently fighting two kinds of wars -- a sporadic military war with Syria, and a never-ending war against terrorism. On the Syrian front, Israel is holding its own very well, as most of Syria's attacks have either faced heavy losses or been answered by devastating Israeli air strikes, forcing Syria to call a cease-fire, at least temporarily. Israel's only real fear in this war is if the more hostile Arab countries -- Iran, Iraq and Libya -- join the war on Syria's side.
The terrorism has been more difficult to combat, as many of the most notorious terrorist incidents remain unclaimed and unsolved. Israel recently doubled the funding and size of its intelligence agency, the Mossad, making it the most powerful and efficient anti-terrorist agency in the world. The Mossad's main nission right now is to prove that there is a link to Libya or some other Arab nation and thus gain leverage for UN sanctions or perhaps even UN-supported punitive strikes against the perpetrating nation. Such strikes, if well planned, could possibly eliminate a terrorist group as well as proide a deterrent against future acts by other terrorist groups. Until this happens, however, Israeli citizens must brace themselves each day for another new attack of some hideous nature, hoping that someday justice will prevail.
Israel's premiere, Loxin Begel, is a hardliner in the matter of the Palestinian issue and believes in aggressive proactive strikes against any and all threats -- whether real or perceived -- in the interest of defending the Israeli state. When the Mossad, first suspected that a nuclear energy plant in Iraq was converting nuclear fuel into fissionable material to be used in a nuclear weapon, Begel wasted no time ordering a major air strike into Iraq to destroy the plant -- without approval or consultation from the UN, the US, or any other country. This tendency to strike first and ask questions later has increased tensions throughout the Arab world, creating more solidarity among its enemies if nothing else.
Japan
Military: 5
Economy: 7
Popular Support: 8
Allies: US, UK, Austrialia, Taiwan, South Korea
Today, Japan is considered to be so completely under the influence of Western culture as to have practically lost its own Eastern roots altogether. In fact, a glimpse of its cell-phone carrying, Gameboy-toting, Coca-Cola drinking youth would convince most visitors to the country that Japan is even more Western then the West. By this same token, any attack on Japan would most likely be considered the same as an attack on downtown Burbank, and would likely illicit a similar response from the US military.
The close ties between the US and Japan is what led, in part, to the ill-fated Pacific Pact, an alliance of Western aligned nations against aggression in the Pacific. Rather than taking a stronger military role in the Pacific, as the US had hoped, quite the opposite happened as Japan cut its military spending to a fraction of former levels, knowing that the US was now formally committed to coming to the rescue of Japan, if need be. A great many air bases as well as a number of ports in Japan were shut down, forcing the West shoulder a greater share of policing the waters bordering China, Russia and North Korea. Unfortunately, the US has been hit with economic problems of its own. (See US History, 2009-2010 regarding computer virus) and has only been able to muster minimal presence in these regions.
One of the great worries facing the US these days, in fact, is the possibility of a major all-out air or missile strike against a US facility there, such as the naval base at Yokosuka, the home of the US 7th Fleet. With Japan's defenses eroding each year, this once far-fetched idea could now be considered a distinct possibility.
Libya
Military: 5
Economy: 4
Popular Support: 9
Allies: Syria, Iran, Iraq
Of all the countries of the Middle East, Libya is by far the most outspoken -- and the most militant. While most Arab nations would be content with a peaceful establishment of a Palestinian state, Libya's stance is far more extreme -- calling for no less than the complete and utter destruction of Israel. Its leader, Col. Khaki Khadama, frequently gives speeches referring to the 'final inferno,' apparently a metaphor for some cataclysmic onslaught in which Israel meets its death by fire, leaving behind nothing but "scorched sand." Libya, in fact, is at times as outspoken and extreme as the PLO.
This anti-Semitic rhetoric makes Libya look particularly suspicious as a supporter of the recent wave of terrorism that has rampaged through Israel, Europe and the United States during the last ten years. These terrorist attacks include the bombing of the Sears Tower in Chicago and the downing of an El Al airliner which is suspected to have been hit by a SAM as it was taking off from Haifa airport. Should any hard evidence come to the surface linking Libya to these incidents, it is almost certain there will be reprisals -- both from Israel as well as the US.
Yet, despite the threat of retribution from these two countries as well as possible UN sanctions, Khadama continues to make flagrant, inflammatory speeches almost daily. His confidence may be bolstered by the support of his closest allies, which include Iraq and Iran, and more recently, the Russian Union. It is no secret that Khadama would like to win over more moderate countries such as Jordan, Syria and especially Egypt, without whom his dream for a united holy war would not be possible.
Malaysia
Military: 3
Economy: 4
Popular Support: 6
Allies: Philippines
After losing its war with the US two years ago (see AAR for the Battle of Brunei) there's not much Malaysia can do but lick its wounds and try to beg its way back into southeast Asian economic circles. Its military has been drastically reduced per order of the armistice treaty, leaving just enough of an army to defend its borders and shorelines but not much else. Harbors, communications centers and other portions of Malaysia's infrastructure are still being repaired even to this day.
While the weakening of Malaysia's armed forces was necessary to stabilize the region, it removed one of the few counter-threats to Indonesia, whose military imperialsm has been growing rampant in recent years. If anything, Malaysia is now so vulnerable that it has been forced to become a reluctant ally of Indonesia, allowing its leader, General Zanjek, to act as the protector of its home waters in exchange for lucrative fishing rights. On the other hand, both countries share an intense hatred of the United States, a fact which could lead to the two countries to joining forces in a full alliance in order to rid the region of American presence.
North Korea
Military: 7
Economy: 2
Popular Support: 4
Allies: China
North Korea has been beset with horrific economic problems in recent years, many of which were brought on by its own isolationist policies that have prevented any sizable amount of trade with any other country other than China. It is believed that the government is maintaining its isolationism in order to maintain control over the media and propaganda. This in fact is the main reason the people of North Korea are as loyal to the government as they are -- they have little information about the outside world with which to compare. Still, poverty is poverty, and the people of North Korea are far from happy. The entire country is on the brink of famine due to a combination of failed crops and overpopulation.
Poverty, of course, can be a dangerous catalyst to war, which makes North Korea's plight of special concern to its more prosperous neighbor to the south. North Korean leadership, in fact, frequently refers to the "inevitable rejoining of the Koreas" as a means of stirring up patriotism. This may explain why North Korea continues to maintain a large, active military as well as numerous training exercises and probes along or near the DMZ.
Still, given the financial straits that North Korea is in these days, it appears that the government is unable to build up its forces any more than they are today. Rather than go the route of a conventional arms buildup, then, North Korea appears to have turned to a more radical -- but perhaps effective -- approach in gaining leverage over South Korea and the US. That is, the development of a credible long-range ballistic missile technology. Negotiations have started many times to try and calm the situation but the research and testing appears to be continuing. Earlier this year, a missile test was conducted which the North Koreans claim reached as close as 300 miles from the US coast. Science analysts say that it is only a matter of months, a year at the most, before North Korea is capable of firing ballistic missiles at the US.
The US has recently developed THAD (Theater High Altitude Defense) but it is only just now coming on line as a full fledged defense against a long or medium range missile of the type fired by North Korea. Even so, its success has been sketchy, and there are a number of bugs to work out before any theater commander would feel comfortable using them.
Pakistan
Military: 4
Economy: 4
Popular Support: 7
Allies: Sri Lanka, Syria, Iran, Libya, Iraq
Pakistan has been involved in what amounts to a cold war with India for over a decade, and continues to build up its armed forces accordingly. Its military strength is nowhere near that of India, however, and therefore relies on a strictly defensive strategy -- but with very serious consequences if this strategy is put into action. India's immense military, which is only partially offset by the need to protect its border against China, has so frightened Pakistan that its leaders were forced to take grave measures in order to gain a sense of security in the region by resorting to the development of nuclear weapons. These weapons were meant to be launched via missiles against Indian ground forces in the event they mobilized against Pakistan, the aim of which was to deter such an event from happening in the first place. However, this action naturally caused India to accelerate its own nuclear program. If this proliferation continues, the UN will likely be forced to pass resolutions to stop the nuclear buildup on both sides, by force if necessary. There will likely be no veto to such a proposal, as the UN Security Council is unanimous on the point of stopping nuclear proliferation.
Pakistan's government is supported strongly by its people, mainly due to the religious convictions (which are fundamentalist Muslim). This makes Pakistan a strong ally of the SILI Coalition (Syria, Iraq, Libya, Iran) as well as other Middle Eastern countries, as compared to India which is largely Hindu. Pakistan is by far more stable-minded than these countries, however, and often tries to be the voice of moderation -- particularly when there are personality clashes beween Iran's Ayatollah Khanolli and Libya's Khaki Khadama.
(See also India, above.)
Philippines
Military: 3
Economy: 4
Popular support: 6
In 2007, the Philippine government decided to once again lease its sizeable air base at Cubi Point to the US. The lease was hefty, and even more lucrative was the expected large influx of hard currency spent by the troops and airmen outside of the base. What the government didn't count on, however, was that a war would break out between the US and Malaysia. During that war, the Philippine people were subjected to the terror of being targeted by a wave of medium range ballistic missiles fired from the Malay Peninsula. Most of the missiles were shot down, but it was not known until after the attack whether or not some of the missiles fired may have been nuclear (none of them were). The scare that this caused among the Phillippine people resulted in the immediate cancelling of the lease the day the war with Malaysia ended.
The missile incident sent a shock wave through the islands that forever eliminated any desire to align the country with any foreign power, no matter how alluring their currency. The US, in an effort to reconcile its differences with the Philippines (and get another shot at opening a base), recently allowed the Philippines to join the Pacific Pact, a treaty that obligates the US to fend off any foreign power in the event that ally comes under attack. With terms as good as this, the Philippines gladly accepted the US as an ally despite its past fears of retribution.
Poland
Military: 6
Economy: 5
Popular Support:6
Poland's current leadership is decidedly pro-Western, but its application to NATO is still being held up after more than a decade due to a small but vocal communist (and anti-Western) minority which has been active in its politics. For now the country has been granted interim membership, whereby Poland will still act in cooperation with NATO forces in the event of a Russian attack but will not benefit from having multi-national forces based within its borders. Under this agreement, Poland will be a buffer for Germany, to be retaken later by a counteroffensive. Once Poland's political situation stabilizes a bit, however, the country will no doubt be granted full NATO membership and will gladly host several permanent, multi-national divisions to stand guard against Russian aggression.
The notion of a Russian invasion is suddenly a not-so-remote issue these days, in fact, due to the sudden appearance of the Russian army currently stationed along Poland's eastern border. Its presence is a result of its pursuit of Ukranian nationalists fleeing to Poland, but once the Ukranian forces disbanded it was assumed that the Russian army would withdraw. It hasn't. Russia has assured Poland and the rest of NATO not to worry, that it has no intention of invading, yet has not offered an explanation for remaining so close to its border. Poland has responded by activating its own army and deploying them to defensive positions. At Poland's invitation, a German division will be transiting to Poland as well, as a show of resolve to the Russians. If the Russian army does not withdraw soon NATO will no doubt be sending more forces to Poland over the next few weeks, but it is hoped that the tensions can be worked out through diplomacy in the near future.
Meanwhile, Poland will be holding national elections in September which could bode well for both NATO and the current governmen, as most political analysts believe the Leftist party will now die a quick death due to their association with a potential Russian invader. The elimination of a communist element would guarantee full-fledged membership to NATO, as well as the full military support that goes with it.
Russian Union (Great Russia)
Military: 9
Economy: 7
Popular Support: 7
Allies: Bulgaria, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, Yugoslavia, Somalia, Angola, Cuba
The economic and military turnaround that Russia has undergone in just ten short years is nothing less than phenomenal. In his first five years, President Putin not only managed to revitalize Russia's economy , but also managed to annex nearly all of the former Soviet republics, forming a confederacy of states now known as the Russian Union, or "Great Russia," as it is called colloquially.
The catalyst for this upsurge in the economy was a massive arms sale in 2005, liquidating Russia's entire arsenal of pre-80's weapons, with much of it going to third world countries at below-market prices. From there things happened quickly. By the time this influx of hard currency had arrived, much of the industrial capital needed for production was already in place, owing to Putin's nationalizing of US assets the year before after a steady decline in relations between the two countries. Putin also managed to clean up much of the corruption and mob influence of the past, which further increased the cash flow to the Russian government and its population at large.
By the end of Putin's term in 2008, most of the former Soviet states had become members of the Russian Union, with the only significant holdouts being a faction of Ukrainian nationalists who many believe were being secretly supported by NATO. President Voronov, who succeeded Putin that same year, wasted no time in lauching a fully mobilized ground war against the Ukrainian separatists, driving them out of the country and into eastern Poland by early 2009. NATO, not prepared to meet a full-scale Russian invasion into Poland at that time, declined to come to the aid of the Ukrainians and the rebellion collapsed a few months later. For the last several months the Russian army has remained in position along the Polish border as a grave warning to NATO to cease and desist any more outside meddling. It is hoped that NATO can defuse this situation through diplomacy and that the Russian army will soon stand down.
Other conflicts involving Russia include a dispute with Japan over the Northern Territories, which includes a portion of the islands north of Japan, and a libertarian revolt in Angola, whose government has enlisted the help of Russia as well as Cuba to deal with the uprising. Currently, the Russian Union appears to be forming alliances with a number of countries worldwide, including Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yugoslavia, Somalia, Angola, Cuba and possibly Honduras.
Saudi Arabia
Military: 5
Economy: 9
Popular Support: 6
Allies: US, Egypt, Pakistan
The last two decades have seen a marked change in Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, which is now much more moderate than in year past. Ties between the Saudis and the US have become quite strong in recent years, in fact, with the US now occupying several military bases in the region at the invitation of the Saudi government -- most likely in gratitude for US participation in the Gulf War. This came at a time when Russia was not able to have much influence in the region due to its failing economy and political turmoil.
This arrangement with the US to use Saudi bases has brought on heavy criticism from nations such as Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Iran (also known as the "SILI Coalition"), the most militant anti-Semitic, anti-US Arab nations. There has even been a minority movement within Saudi Arabia itself denouncing the government and calling for new, pan-Arabian leadership.
The first step in patching up Russian-Saudi relations was the sale of some highly sophisticated weapons, in particular the MiG-29, which were rumored to have been sold at far below the already low market value. This in turn created a need for more Russian technicians and advisors to keep their air force flying, which could be the basis of a new, military partnership that competes with, and perhaps someday overtakes the one between the Saudis and the US.
Somalia
Military: 2
Economy: 1
Popular Support: 3
Allies: Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Cuba
Ever since the tragedy involving US Rangers and Delta Force personnel in Mogadishu two decades ago, US policy has been to refrain from intervening in Somalia -- a policy that has lasted for almost two decades. This led to a power vaccuum which appears to have been gladly filled by Russia, and to some extent, Cuba. Last year (2008), militant warlords -- with Russian weapons and Cuban guerrilla advisors -- overthrew the government and are now ruling by the power of the gun. This has greatly upset the stability of the entire region, with skirmishes and refugee problems spilling into neighboring South Africa and Ethiopia. This new government has not been recognized by the UN, and is generally considered something of an outlaw nation.
Somalia's economy is in a state of almost complete collapse, with poverty and famine running rampant and the national currency nearly worthless. The warlord leadership, meanwhile, has been accused of widespread corruption by the West, which claims that they have been stealing or trading away all incoming foreign aid for their own benefit. The army is also reportedly highly corrupt and self-serving, as homes and cars are reportedly "commandeered" at gunpoint by soldiers on a daily basis. While these rumors have not yet been verified, the UN has proposed to send peacekeeping forces to enter the country. Not unpredictably, Russia vetoed these proposals calling this action "meddlesom" and recalling that this is what led to the disastrous incident in Mogadishu in 1993.
Due to the period of chaos that Somalia going through at this time, much of Somalia's army is poorly organized and unable to fight efficiently at this time. Should the warring factions resolve their differences (either by agreement or by slaughter) it could be reorganized quickly -- especially if they receive Russian help, which is likely. Given Somalia's strategic location as the southern gateway to the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal, such an unruly force, when combined with heavy weapons and properly organized, would be a grave concern to the US and all other nations dependent on Middle Eastern oil.
Syria (aka Syrian Federation)
Military: 4
Economy: 4
Popular support: 6
Allies: Iran, Libya, Iraq
Syria, one of the four most outspoken and militant Arab states who oppose the legitimacy of Israel (the others being Iran, Iraq and Libya), has grown in influence and power over the last ten years, particularly over the smaller Arab states of Jordan and Lebanon. Today, both of those countries have been annexed as independent republics within what is now known as the Syrian Federation.
Currently, Syria has been tied up in an on-again, off-again war with Israel, which has been depleting to both its economy and its general, public morale. Typically, the cycle begins with small-scale raids or attrocities committed by Syrian troops in Israeli settlements, followed by devastating reprisals by Israeli air strikes that often leave highways strewn with burning Syrian tanks, APCs and other vehicles. A day or two later they are both at the peace tables talking until some rock-throwing incident occurs and the cycle begins all over again.
Because Israel always seems to get in the last word before the peace talks begin, Syria has been taking much more of a beating in this war than Israel. Already, Syria has lost an entire division of troops and its logistics has been heavily disrupted. Worse, morale is beginning to suffer. Most observers believe that if the cycle continues this way without any significant victories for Syria, the war will end in the next two or three months with Israel securing new safeguards against future Syrian aggression.
Syria's one hope is to inspire its Arab allies to join in the war, which is actually becoming more likely by the day as Iran's Ayatollah Khanolli is now hinting at doing just that. If this happens, both Libya and Saudi will surely enter the war as well which will surely mean doom for the state of Israel without strong US military support.
Syria's economy, while still stable, is now facing runaway inflation and a falloff of consumer production and exports -- all typical for a country at the brink of war. Syria is hopeful that its SILI allies -- Iran, Libya and Iraq -- will join in the fight. Recently that hope may have been answered, as the Ayatollah Khanolli of Iran for the first time called for his people to rise up and destroy the Israeli state "once and for all."
Taiwan (Republic of China)
Military: 5
Economy: 8
Popular Support: 8
For decades, the Republic of China has lived under the shadow of a hostile invasion from mainland China, but the fear of such an event was never so imminent as now. Five years ago, failing to convince the Taiwanese government to enter negotiations for a peaceful absorption of Taiwan into Communist China's domain, a massive buildup of Chinese forces began to appear ostentatiously across the Taiwan Strait. Most of these forces consist of pre-1980 equipment that was purchased during the 2005 Russian arms sale, which came on line within a year or two after the purchase orders went through. At first this was thought to be a scare tactic, (which it still may well be), but the buildup has been increasing steadily, as more and more of these newly acquired tanks, APCs and artillery pieces were deployed directly to ports that are no more than 100 miles from the coast of Formosa. All that was lacking was adequate amphibious capability to bring these forces across the Strait. China has not made any overt threats in regard to this buildup, which some observers say is China's particular way of threatening -- using action, not words.
One reason why China may be more intent on annexing its former island province these days is because of the surge in Taiwan's economy. In much the same way that Japan focused on marketing electronics in the mid-80's, Taiwan has done the same for the world's textiles industry. In fact, today over half of the clothing worn in the United States is made in Taiwan. (Though not without great sacrifice among its people in terms of labor conditions. However, while some human rights groups have decried the slave-like conditions of the workers there, the profits are so enticing that clothing designers -- and the US government -- tend to look the other way.)
Because of the profitability associated with Taiwan trade, the US has entered a binding "immediate assistance" agreement with Taiwan as part of the Pacific Pact which would require the US to respond with deadly force and with all possible haste the moment Taiwan is considered to be under attack from China. This puts an added strain on the US 7th Fleet, which is already stretched pretty thin having to keep watch on the Korean peninsula and was not fully ready for a "rapid reaction" mission in Taiwan. This may also force the US 3rd Fleet based in Pearl Harbor to forward deploy, leaving the mainland US somewhat vulnerable.
United States
Military: 10
Economy: 9
Popular support: 8
(For details on recent U.S. history, please refer to the Library of Congress document, A Brief History of the United States.)
Vietnam
Military: 4
Economy: 6
Popular Support: 6
Allies: US, Japan
It is ironic to think of a communist regime that was once a bitter enemy of the US as a business partner and a potential defender against Chinese imperialism, but this is an example of the paradox that is Vietnam today. While still a communist country, Vietnam has maintained an open-door trade policy with the US and other nations which in turn has led to burgeoning success in many industries, including finance, textiles, hard goods and other exports. The result is state-controlled industry that supports itself by competing energetically in the US and in other Asian markets, especially South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.
Vietnam's economic policies have drawn sharp criticism from China, who is greatly disapproving of Vietnam's "westernized" version of socialism. A buildup of ethnic tensions, border disputes and ideological friction between these two countries has been accompanied by an equally noticeable buildup of Chinese forces along the country's northern border. There are some who believe that in actuality China is covetous of Vietnam's capitalistic success and would like to annex its assets as a step in relieving its own problems (see China, above).
Vietnam's military is still somewhat formidable in the defensive role, as even schoolchildren are taught basic riflery and marching drills. But the country no longer drills in guerilla warfare, which might have posed an inhibiting deterrent against Chinese occupation, and the regular armed forces lack the massive armor and air force components considered necessary in defending their country against a determined Chinese offensive. This is perhaps the main reason Vietnam is eager to court favor with the US. The US, on the other hand, has sizeable banking interests in Vietnam and has a lot to lose if China should ever take over the country. Once again, politics can make for very strange bedfellows.
Yugoslavia
Military: 4
Economy: 6
Popular Support: 5
Allies: Russia
After rebuilding its infrastructure as well as its armed forces following the conflict in Kosovo, Yugoslavia is once again showing aggressive tendencies -- this time in the northwestern province of Croatia. With the UN Peacekeeping missions long absent from the region, Yugoslavia has been free to import new weapons at an unprecedented rate, chiefly from Russia. Russia and Yugoslavia, in fact, are considered to be as closely aligned now as the days of the Warsaw Pact.
The economy of Yugoslavia has rebounded strongly in recent years, mainly due to a burgeoning steel industry in its western provinces that came about as a result of recent developments in mining technology. Today, Yugoslavia has become one of the chief suppliers of steel to much of Europe and Russia. The emergence of this industry -- located mainly in Croatia -- is in fact what prompted the recent military buildup; Yugoslavia is apparently intent on taking over this republic in order to gain federal control of the steel production and "to distribute the profits of this new industry in a manner that is in the national interest."
Alarmed at yet another buildup of Yugoslavian forces in this region, the US is calling upon its western European allies (WEU) for an IFOR ground force, while the WEU is requesting US carrier support to provide preemptive air strike capability. Admittedly, the WEU makes a strong case. If there is any lesson NATO has taken away from the past experience in the Balkans, it is that force must be met with force before the enemy has seized any objectives, not afterward. It is far easier to eliminate an enemy from a region when in transit than when it is well dug-in and on the defensive. The US is balking, however, no doubt due to the many demands being made for carrier support throughout the world.
Organizations
PLO
(Not rated)
Allies: Syria, Iran, Libya, Iraq (aka SILI Coalition)
The Palestine Liberation Organization is still fighting as hard for an independent Palestinian homeland as they have at any time in their history. Its leader, Yasser Arafat may be aging, but continues to command this group with unquestioned authority. In the last ten years the organization has completey overhauled its structure and methods, transforming itself from a band of militant rebels to a sophisticated international terrorist syndicate, replete with high-security underground bunkers and seamless communications links to the heads of state of each of the SILI countries. Today, a PLO terrorist is more likely to introduce a computer virus than rig a car bomb. (Which is why the PLO is the prime suspect in the "Alice" bug, which ravaged the US economy for several years.)
Recently, the PLO has come under fire from the West as well as from Israel due to the noticeable increase in terrorist attacks throughtout the world. While the PLO claims to have no part in these attacks and tries to put on a facade of good will and diplomacy, the US and Israel are skeptical.
Tamil
(Not rated)
While the Sri Lanka government tries to maintain a facade of peace and harmony to investors and tourists, this island republic has in fact become synonymous with a host of international terrorist groups, the most notable one being the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) -- a fanatic religious sect backed by Pakistan and a sworn enemy of India's Hindu government. Originally expatriates from India themselves, the Tamil migrated and eventually won autonomous rule from the Sri Lanka government after years of bitter fighting and is now a begrudgingly tolerated enclave in a remote part of the island.
Sri Lanka's government would no doubt be pleased to extricate this troublesome hive of international criminals from its shores, but appears powerless to do so. Sri Lanka authorities have repeatedly called upon the UN to help evict this "criminal element" from their country. For now, however, they will have to just grin and bear it, as the only country capable of bringing significant military power to the region is the US and possibly Great Britain, and both appear to have other more important matters on their agenda.
END REPORT.